But what does Iowa all mean, Basil?

*updated after results. see below results for a preview or why it didn’t matter.

Obama won by a large percentage. All that does is prove that John Edwards won’t win the nomination. It will be interesting after South Carolina if Edwards is lagging in third who he chooses to support. I think that the “throwing support” idea is ridiculous. Decide for yourselves people! But since people are stupid, we can assume that if Edwards threw his support behind Obama, this might become a race. To quote Jonathan Swift:

The biggest loser of all was Hillary Clinton. If she can’t win in Iowa, where can she win? In every contested race since 1972 (Bill Clinton ran unopposed in 1996), the winner of the Iowa caucuses for the Democrats has gone on to be elected President, except for 1972, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 2000 and 2004 when the winner did not go on to be elected President. Iowans have an uncanny ability to predict which Democrat can win in the general election, which means Hillary’s campaign may be doomed.

Huckabee won, proving once again that Mitt Romney is about as popular with voters as Michael Jackson is with music lovers. Some people support him for one reason or another, but he’ll never have broad love. Jackson wants tiny love anyway. I still think that McCain has a shot. Thompson is a failure. So the three Republican candidates that matter are Huckabee, McCain, and Giuliani. And that assumes McCain does well in New Hampshire, Michigan, or South Carolina and builds up some steam.

So did this matter much? No. It told us what we already knew - Obama is the best looking candidate.

The preview:

There is a lot going on in these stupid primaries. We whittle down a list of a whole bunch of smelly, pirate candidates to a smaller list of acrid leaders.

Everyone is writing about what could be happening tomorrow because no one wants to wait for…tomorrow.

Here we’ve got our requisite “Fred Thompson will surprise people” guy. I really think no. He’s the closest neo-con we’ve got. And I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but the neo-cons aren’t doing so well nationally. I also really liked the comment on this one about how the guy just couldn’t bring him self to support McCain because McCain supported giving human rights to combatants. Yeah, I hate people who show respect and mercy too. Thompson may impress people in these early polls, but I don’t think he really has a chance.

Then there’s the Mitt Romney people. I would argue that using Robert Novak as a source is still funny to me. I have no idea what quality of reporting he is doing these days, but for awhile, I’m taking him with a grain or three of salt. Romney has a much better chance than Thompson because he’s prettier, less gritty, and more of a 2008 politician. Thompson is 1924 Chicago. Romney winning Iowa wouldn’t really mean anything because he’s spent so much money there. He’s never going to have a big idea.

What Giuliani’s big ideas will be is yet to be determined. It appears that the average Republican does not understand the primary process. But that doesn’t matter. Giuliani’s hope is not in Iowa. We’ll see in February is Giuliani is going to have his strength.

Now, our friend John McCain has not been truly addressed. An important note for someone trying to lead a grassroots campaign: the internet is important. Having the least popular website isn’t great for McCain. Having the most popular isn’t doing too much for Ron Paul though. Except making him money. He is doing surprisingly well though in polls. I think that he has a chance because, more than any of the other candidates, he had a following pre-election. Some of those have stuck with him. I don’t agree with McCain on that many issues, but he is an idealist, which I respect. But I also think he’s a jerk and a politician sometimes. I think he’d be an acceptable choice from the Republican side.

Then there’s Huckabee. Rush Limbaugh hates him and that’s a plus in my book. It’s not a plus for primary voters though. He has a chance, but if he drops to third somehow in Iowa, he’s in trouble. He needs to come out of Iowa and New Hampshire with momentum cause his following is a bandwagon. I don’t know what to think about him. He doesn’t seem to live off ideals. By that I mean that his position on immigration seems open to my ideals, but his stances on other issues like marriage are off to me.

Ron Paul is super. He isn’t perfect, but he is blunt and honest. The government would change with him in office and change for the better.

Now, to the Dems.

We’ll start with the most divisive candidate: Senator Barak Obama. Obama has managed to annoy the progressive blogoshpere. I’m entirely in favor of that. Any politician who manages to annoy either side of the blog world has done a great thing. But he is more of a centrist than I though. I’ve been pleased to discover that he is not a socialist. He does seem like a dick in some of the debates the way he looks down at the other candidates. I’d like to hear who is on his short list for vice president candidate. Ron Paul maybe? Iowa isn’t a big deal for him, though a win would be nice. It isn’t imperative though.

John Edwards has decided to position himself as the populist candidate, too bad Michael Moore likes him. That’s okay with me, just remember that I’m not going vote for him. He doesn’t have a ton of support and from my calculation will take quite a comeback to win the nomination. He wouldn’t have a chance in general election, so for the sake of the Democrats, he needs to say goodbye. Though some people are arguing that Edwards may be the answer because he’ll stand up to the Republicans. I think that a a winner Democrat would have to stand up, because it is always the Dems that compromise. But Edwards isn’t that strong and would shop for re-election immediately.

Hilary is Hilary is Hilary. What can you say that can’t already be said? She’s incredibly smart, she can win the general election, and she looks like an alien. I would vote for an alien if one ran. I’d support the alien blindly. Why is it that Democrats support people with creepy face skin? John Kerry was melting. Hilary’s face is uncooked dough. I think she’ll win the nomination, though it would be useful to win something early. Obama would have to come in with a big break to show himself a true contender.

Dennis Kucinich is amusing and I appreciate his honesty, but once again, he’s just there to dance for us. Biden is honest too, but this just isn’t his year.

To summarize: The Republican race is confusing and Iowa matters. Some candidates could get real momentum out of this. For the Democrats, it doesn’t matter. Edwards doesn’t suddenly become a potential winner just with a good showing in the early primaries. If he won some 40+ percent, then yeah, there’s a change, but that won’t happen. Of course, why read this when you can just check out the results tomorrow.